Future urban growth scenarios and ecosystem services valuation in the Tepic-Xalisco Metropolitan area, Mexico

نویسندگان

چکیده

Currently, there is a need to establish new territorial planning instruments focused on sustainable development. The simulation of spatial scenarios an essential tool evaluate different alternatives for urban planning. objective this work was explore future growth through the analysis landscape patterns and economic quantification ecosystem services three prospective scenarios, simulated towards horizon year 2045. Each scenario formulated, based application socioeconomic, political environmental development strategies whose actions have direct impact land-use changes. starting point model, Cellular Automata with Markov Chains (CA-Markov), developed from previous study area. Three were constructed intention showing characteristics evolution them, quantify value consequences that would occur in territory due effect decisions taken. Landscape metrics applied detect processes each and, finally, costs associated loss or gain (that land covers uses contribute) quantified. revealed Tepic-Xalisco Metropolitan Zone (MZ) will be process coalescence next 30 years; path designed move Industrialisation Scenario (ES2-IN) estimates losses more than $31 million dollars per particularly reduction forest cover.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: One Ecosystem

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2367-8194']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.7.e84518